CORONAVIRUS – HAS THE WORLD NOT BECOME COMPLACENT?

CORONAVIRUS – HAS THE WORLD NOT BECOME COMPLACENT?


Coronavirus (2020)
Death toll : 22,266
[494,180 infected]
Originated : China
World Population : 7.794 billion (March 2020)
[Reference : Google : worldometer]

Why are we so shocked by a world-wide virus (see facts from history on the second page)?
1. History shows there have been worse fatalities, when comparing to the number of people in the world population, at that time (see below).
2. We see from history; this is not a new phenomenon.
3. We see from history hygiene is key, whilst at the same time we all need to build up anti-bodies to fight off new germs.
4. We see from history, when merchants travelled between ports or urbanisation began or World War I, people were exposed to diseases they had no anti-bodies for, thus bringing home unknown diseases.

The world has got smaller, we can fly to just about any part of the world. Thus, exposing ourselves to unknown diseases and we are surprised? Are we complacent because we have medical technology unprecedented to what was available in 200AD?

What do we do for our clients?
In terms of investing, it is not the end of the world as we know it, so what should we do :
• Stay calm, if you are calm your clients will hopefully feel more at peace.
• Do not trust social media, find the truth first and then make an informed decision.
• Do not make emotional decisions.
• Remind yourself that the current loss in markets will more than likely become a V-shaped curve, which means a sharp downturn in the markets followed by a sharp upside; so, wait for the markets to recover.
• If the client is determined to sell, what happens if they missed the best days in the market? (see image on next page)

I leave you with this excerpt :
2020 03 16 – Article from Coronation :
Two things we know with high confidence – by Morgan Housel
‘The Great Depression brought unimaginable financial pain. It also brought us supermarkets, microwaves, sunscreen, jets, rockets, electron microscopes, magnetic recording, nylon, photocopying, teflon, helicopters, colour TV, plexiglass, commercial aviation, most forms of plastic, synthetic rubber, laundromats, and countless other discoveries.’
__________________________________________________________________________________

FACTS FROM HISTORY:
FLU PANDEMIC (1968)
Death Toll: 1 million
Originated : July 13, 1968 in Hong Kong
World Population : 3.55 billion

ASIAN FLU (1956-1958)
Death Toll: 2 million
Originated : China in 1956
World Population : 2.8 billion (1956) and 2.9 billion (1958)

INFLUENZA (1918-1920); known as Spanish Flu
Death toll : estimated to be between 17 million to 50 million, and possibly as high as 100 million.
Originated : from World War I
World population : between 1.8 and 1.9 billion

SIXTH CHOLERA PANDEMIC (1910-1911)
Death Toll: 800,000+
Originated in India where it killed over 800,000; before spreading to the Middle East, North Africa, Eastern Europe and Russia.
World Population : 1.75 billion (1910)

FLU PANDEMIC (1889-1890)
Death Toll: 1 million
Originated – Bukhara in Central Asia (Turkestan), Athabasca in north-western Canada, and Greenland.
World Population : 1.2 billion (1850) and 1.6 billion (1900)

THIRD CHOLERA PANDEMIC (1852–1860)
Death Toll: 1 million
Originated in India, spreading from the Ganges river
World Population : 1.2 billion in 1850 to 1.6 billion in 1900

THE BLACK DEATH (1346-1353), Bubonic plague
Death Toll: 75 – 200 million
Originally thought from Asia
World Population : 360 million (1200)

PLAGUE OF JUSTINIAN (541-542); Bubonic plague
Death Toll: 25 million
Originated : Byzantine Empire and Mediterranean port cities
World Population : 200 million (600)

ANTONINE PLAGUE (165 AD)
Death Toll: 5 million
Originated : Asia Minor, Egypt, Greece, and Italy
World Population : 190 million (200 AD)

[Google search : the 10 worst pandemics since 165AD]
[Population : Worldometers.info and www.mphonline.org/worst-pandemics-in-history]

Deanne Davies
(Post-graduate Diploma in Financial Planning)
Financial Advisor
Hampshire Independent Advisors

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